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Hello and welcome to another addition of Gambler Anonymous.
Episode Number  of 
This week, Analysis Paralysis
A poor start to the tips for us has resulted in a required analysis of our betting pattern, and in turn, an opportunity to demonstrate the need for recording data to analyse and improve performance. With 6 losses in a row now, this analysis is imperative to stop the rot and get back to winning ways.
Starting with our, very early stages, dashboard, we have created a graph depicting an area for analysis, the home away record. As can be seen in the graph, both home and away are losing, but the home record is significantly better then the away. When we drive down a little further, we can see that taking away the drama of the F.A. Cup, that the profit improves a little more. Although we have recorded a win in it, the unpredictable nature of European competitions leaves you wondering if they are worth getting involved with at all.
Going further still with our analysis, we can got to www.football-data.co.uk and access a free csv file database of football betting data going back to the 2000/2001 season which we can further analyse. Clicking on the ‘Historical‘ link we gain access to a whole host of leagues and seasons data. The current English Premier League season seems as good an example as any so we download the file and enter some formula in excel. We can see that the home side has won nearly 39% of the games this season, confirming our home advantage theory. What is interesting is that this is quite low and when the same calculations are done over the previous season, that figure jumps up to over 45%, so a definite edge is to be had just betting home sides.
What is interesting however, is the average odds and the return on investment figures. These figures show that the return on investment for betting on every winning home side at the average starting price will not produce a positive return. So an edge needs to be created, and we can find that in-play. When a favourite goes a goal down, or has a player sent off, or the odds drift until the 70th minute as they look for a breakthrough. All opportunities for favourable odds to be obtained.
What is apparent, is domestic home sides are favourable, and providing the odds can match that favourability then a profit can be achieved.
A couple of missed opportunities for one reason or another from last week were Real Madrid against Roma in the Champions League, Dortmund away to Bayer Leverkusen and Porto’s comeback against Moreirense. Two of those were away fixtures and possibly should not have got involved with anyway but Porto was a sore miss.
This week’s games include Manchester United at Shrewsbury Town in the F.A. Cup on Monday. An away fixture, but this one seems too one sided to pass on.
Sporting Lisbon also take on Boavista on Monday and should be an opportunity if odds permit.
Tuesday sees the Champions League return where Barcelona take to the Emirates where another away side could provide an opportunity, but this will be a cautious one as of no home advantage.
Juventus and Bayern Munich provide entertainment though probably not a profitable opportunity.
Wednesday sees Champions League football continue though probably no profit here.
Thursday sees a mouth-watering opportunity with Manchester United needing the win at Old Trafford to spare their embarrassment from last week against Midtjylland. If the home side struggle, and odds permit then an opportunity could arise here. Liverpool could also be in a similar position but not as likely. Be cautious in Europe, as ever.
Friday may provide an away opportunity on Celtic but show caution on the away side as always.
Saturday sees Leicester, PSV and Real Madrid provide potential home opportunities and Sunday has Dortmund, Benfica and Barcelona as likely opportunities, with Man City at Liverpool, Manchester United hosting Arsenal, and Juventus hosting Inter providing watchable games with very slight, potential, opportunities.
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As always, gamble responsibly, as to not, is to lose.
Thank you for watching and see you in the next episode.